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In the course of the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán was notable as the only EU chief to back Donald Trump. This alignment was hardly surprising, in light of Mr Orbán's adoption of divisive ideas like great replacement ideology and the suppression of press independence. Analysts have noted that Mr Orbán practically laid the groundwork for Trump's base, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Electoral Support Ahead of Hungary's Polls

Recently, with pivotal polls in Hungary just approaching in six months, the US president offered electoral assistance. While Orbán seeks a fifth straight win leading a nation he calls an non-liberal system, his political group lags in opinion polls. A visit to Washington resulted in beyond Trump campaign souvenirs; it secured far more significant electoral advantages.

Waivers and Financial Shields

Although earlier admonishing European states on the necessity to halt all fuel purchases from the Russian Federation, and threatening sanctions against states still to purchase Russian crude, Mr Trump consented to allow a special exemption for Hungary – the top consumer among EU members of Russian oil. According to Mr Orbán, the US government also promised to offer a economic protection to the Hungarian authorities if it runs into any upcoming challenges, particularly since EU institutions persists in holding back substantial EU funds to Hungary due to violations of legal standards.

The particulars of this agreement remain somewhat murky. However Donald Trump has shown his inclination to help out like-minded partners after the US granted a $20bn emergency credit line to Argentina’s far-right president, the South American leader. Even though the Hungarian PM did not secure a presidential tour to the Hungarian capital, the Washington talks nevertheless proved a productive session.

Brussels' Worries and International Implications

Within EU circles, Mr Trump’s intervention probably emphasized the geopolitical stakes of the upcoming vote, ahead of which the centrist challenger, Péter Magyar, has a clear edge in opinion data. Heads of state know not to expect steady principles from the US government, and are familiar with the Trump's moves to diminish the bloc. But Mr Orbán’s exemption – which came at the price of an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – openly contradicts the bloc's aims to end Russian oil and gas by 2027.

• From 2022 onward, the top importers in the EU of Russian crude, these two countries, have contributed substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• At the same time, Hungary has often employed the veto power to stymie progress in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• While Europe works to create a coordinated approach for supporting Kyiv, and bolstering its position in any later diplomatic discussions, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the international forums is still a key barrier.

Challenger's Position

The opposition candidate has steered clear of promising a drastic turnaround on Ukraine, and directed his efforts on home affairs, while stressing the importance for Hungary to begin operating as a positive member state. After enduring so many years of trolling, Brussels can only hold out hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to fundamental European principles, including the support for minority protections and the independence of civil society institutions, has persisted as a source of shame for the EU. His persistent opposition on the Ukraine issue risks undermining its future security.