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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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